These are map products depicting modeled treeline dynamics. The left panel indicates modeled treeline dynamics from a single 2014 baseline year to the year 2100. The right panel indicates basal area accumulation on a 1km x 1km pixel basis during the year 2100, which gives an indication where possible further treeline advance may occur beyond 2100.

The source datasets used to create these maps can be found here:

http://ckan.snap.uaf.edu/dataset/alfresco-model-outputs-linear-coupled-annual

ALFRESCO is a landscape scale fire and vegetation dynamics model. These specific outputs are from the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) project, and are from the linear coupled version using AR4/CMIP3 and AR5/CMIP5 climate inputs (IEM Generation 1a).

These outputs include data from model rep 171(AR4/CMIP3) and rep 26(AR5/CMIP5), referred to as the “best rep” out of 200 replicates. The best rep was chosen through comparing ALFRESCO’s historical fire outputs to observed historical fire patterns. Single rep analysis is not recommended as a best practice, but can be used to visualize possible changes.

The IEM Generation 1 is driven by outputs from 4 climate models, and two emission scenarios:

AR4/CMIP3

SRES A1B

CCCMA-CGCMS-3.1

MPI-ECHAM5

AR5/CMIP5

RCP 8.5

MRI-CGCM3

NCAR-CCSM4