ALFRESCO Model outputs - Relative Flammability

This file includes spatial representations of relative flammability produced through summarization of the ALFRESCO model outputs. These specific outputs are from the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) project, and are from the linear coupled version using AR5/CMIP5 climate inputs (IEM Generation 2). This dataset has been updated to include flammability data summarized over additional time scales as well, done in the same manner as the intial dataset. These ALFRESCO outputs were summarized over three future eras (2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099) and a historical era (1950-2008), for two future emissions scenarios for five CMIP5 models

Date (Publication): 2017-10-24

Date (Revision): 2023-06-02

Edition: 1.0

Credit: Alec Bennett

Credit: Michael Lindgren

Credit: Tom Kurkowski

Credit: Kyle Redilla

Credit: Craig Stephenson

Status: Completed

Point of contact

Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning

Maintenance and update frequency: As needed

Theme

projected
historical
modeled
wildfires

Use constraints: License

Spatial representation type: Grid

Distance: 1 km

Metadata language: eng

Character set: UTF8

Topic category

Climatology, meteorology, atmosphere

Begin date: 1901-01-01

End date: 2100-12-31

Supplemental Information: Relative flammability was defined as the likelihood of a pixel to burn, and it counts the number of times a pixel burned through all replicates and time and divides that value by the total number of layers (replicates * years). These parameters were assessed throughout the full spatial domain and 3 temporal domains of the simulations (1900-1999, 2000-2099, and 1900-2099) across all 200 model replicates. We calculated the proportion of years among all the simulations (200 replicate runs x number of years per simulation) that each individual pixel burned.

The models and scenarios include:

IEM Generation 1, AR4/CMIP3:

CCCMA-CGCM3.1(T47)

MPI-ECHAM5/MPI-OM

under the A1B emission scenario

IEM Generation 2, AR5/CMIP5:

NCAR-CCSM4

MRI-CGCM3

under RCP 8.5 emission scenario

With the June 2023 update to include summaries of ALFRESCO outputs over different time scales from the initial release of this dataset (those used in the Northern Climate Reports web tool (northernclimatereports.org)), the data also include more models and scenarios over what was initially provided (above). This dataset is derived from the same set of ALFRESCO model runs driven by each of the following five models: GFDL-CM3, NCAR-CCSM4, MRI-CGCM3, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and GISS-E2-R. The calculation for each pixel is done over all years within the era and among all the simulations (200 replicate runs x number of years per simulation).

This updated dataset can be found at AR5_CMIP5/alfresco_Relative_flammability_30yr.zip. The file naming convention for the modal dataset looks like this: alfresco_relative_flammability_<start year of summary era>-<end year of summary era>_<model>_<scenario>.tif.

There are several example map layouts for specific Landscape Conservation Cooperatives in Alaska for for IEM Generation 1 outputs only.

For background on ALFRESCO, please refer to:

Daniel H. Mann, T. Scott Rupp, Mark A. Olson, and Paul A. Duffy. Is Alaska's Boreal Forest Now Crossing a Major Ecological Threshold?

Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 2012 44 (3), 319-331

Unique resource identifier: EPSG:3338

Number of dimensions: 2

Dimension name: Row

Dimension size: 2100

Resolution: 1000 meters

Dimension name: Column

Dimension size: 3650

Resolution: 1000 meters

Cell geometry: Area

Distribution format

OnLine resource: ALFRESCO Model outputs - Relative Flammability ( WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link )
URL to web-accessible folder containing downloads for this data set