This file includes spatial representations of relative flammability produced through summarization of the ALFRESCO model outputs. These specific outputs are from the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) project, and are from the linear coupled version using AR4/CMIP3 climate inputs (IEM Generation 1) and AR5/CMIP5 climate inputs (IEM Generation 2).

Relative flammability was defined as the likelihood of a pixel to burn . These parameters were assessed throughout the full spatial domain and 3 temporal domains of the simulations (1900-1999, 2000-2099, and 1900-2099) across all 200 model replicates. We calculated the proportion of years among all the simulations (200 replicate runs x number of years per simulation) that each individual pixel burned.

The models and scenarios include:

IEM Generation 1, AR4/CMIP3:

CCCMA-CGCM3.1(T47)

MPI-ECHAM5/MPI-OM

under the A1B emission scenario

IEM Generation 2, AR5/CMIP5:

NCAR-CCSM4

MRI-CGCM3

under RCP 8.5 emission scenario

There are several example map layouts for specific Landscape Conservation Cooperatives in Alaska for for IEM Generation 1 outputs only.

Relative Flammability:

Counts the number of times a pixel burned through all replicates and time and divides that value by the total number of layers (replicates * years)

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For background on ALFRESCO, please refer to:

Daniel H. Mann, T. Scott Rupp, Mark A. Olson, and Paul A. Duffy. Is Alaska's Boreal Forest Now Crossing a Major Ecological Threshold?

Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 2012 44 (3), 319-331