This set of files includes annual model outputs from ALFRESCO, a landscape scale fire and vegetation dynamics model. These specific outputs are from the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) project, and are from the linear coupled version using AR4/CMIP3 climate inputs (IEM Generation 1-AR4) and AR5/CMIP5 climate inputs (IEM Generation 1-AR5). These outputs include data from model rep 171 (IEM Generation 1-AR4) and rep 26 (IEM Generation 1-AR5), referred to as the “best rep” out of 200 replicates. The best rep was chosen through comparing ALFRESCO’s historical fire outputs to observed historical fire patterns. Single rep analysis is not recommended as a best practice, but can be used to visualize possible changes. Please note that this data is used to fill in a gap in available data for the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) and does not constitute a complete or precise measurement of this variable in all locations. **Climate models and emission scenarios:** IEM Generation 1-AR4/CMIP3 CCCMA-CGCMS-3.1 MPI-ECHAM5 under the SRES A1B scenario IEM Generation 1-AR5/CMIP5 MRI-CGCM3 NCAR-CCSM4 under RCP 8.5 scenario Variables include: -------------- **Veg**: The dominant vegetation for this cell. Current values are: 0 = Not Modeled 1 = Black Spruce 2 = White Spruce 3 = Deciduous Forest 4 = Shrub Tundra 5 = Graminoid Tundra 6 = Wetland Tundra 7 = Barren / Lichen / Moss 8 = Temperate Rainforest **Age**: This the age of the vegetation in each cell. An Age value of 0 means it transitioned in the previous year. **Basal Area**: The accumulation of basal area of white spruce in tundra cell, and is influenced by seed dispersal, growth of biomass, climate data, and other factors. units = m^2 / ha **Burn Severity**: This is a categorical burn severity level of the previous burn in the current cell, influenced by fire size and slope. For example, a burn severity value in a file with year 1971 in the file name means that the severity level given to that file occurred in the fire that occurred in year 1970. 0=No Burn 1=Low 2=Moderate 3=High w Low Surface Severity 4=High w/ High Surface Severity **Fire Scar**: These are the unique fire scars. Each cell has three values. Band 1 - Year of burn Band 2 - Unique ID for the simulated fire for that simulation year Band 3 - Whether or not the cell was an ignition location for a fire. There will only be 1 ignition cell per fire per year. 0 = not ignition 1 = ignition point For background on ALFRESCO, please refer to: Is Alaska's Boreal Forest Now Crossing a Major Ecological Threshold? Daniel H. Mann, T. Scott Rupp, Mark A. Olson, and Paul A. Duffy Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 2012 44 (3), 319-331 [http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.1657/1938-4246-44.3.319](http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.1657/1938-4246-44.3.319)

This set of files includes annual model outputs from ALFRESCO, a landscape scale fire and vegetation dynamics model. These specific outputs are from the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) project, and are from the linear coupled version using AR4/CMIP3 climate inputs (IEM Generation 1-AR4) and AR5/CMIP5 climate inputs (IEM Generation 1-AR5). These outputs include data from model rep 171(IEM Generation 1-AR4) and rep 26 (IEM Generation 1-AR5), referred to as the “best rep” out of 200 replicates. The best rep was chosen through comparing ALFRESCO’s historical fire outputs to observed historical fire patterns. Single rep analysis is not recommended as a best practice, but can be used to visualize possible changes. Climate models and emission scenarios: IEM Generation 1-AR4/CMIP3 CCCMA-CGCMS-3.1 MPI-ECHAM5 under the SRES A1B scenario IEM Generation 1-AR5/CMIP5 MRI-CGCM3 NCAR-CCSM4 under RCP 8.5 scenario Variables include: Veg: The dominant vegetation for this cell. Current values are: 0 = Not Modeled 1 = Black Spruce 2 = White Spruce 3 = Deciduous Forest 4 = Shrub Tundra 5 = Graminoid Tundra 6 = Wetland Tundra 7 = Barren / Lichen / Moss 8 = Temperate Rainforest Age: This the age of the vegetation in each cell. An Age value of 0 means it transitioned in the previous year. Basal Area: The accumulation of basal area of white spruce in tundra cell, and is influenced by seed dispersal, growth of biomass, climate data, and other factors. units = m^2 / ha Burn Severity: This is a categorical burn severity level of the previous burn in the current cell, influenced by fire size and slope. For example, a burn severity value in a file with year 1971 in the file name means that the severity level given to that file occurred in the fire that occurred in year 1970. 0=No Burn 1=Low 2=Moderate 3=High w Low Surface Severity 4=High w/ High Surface Severity Fire Scar: These are the unique fire scars. Each cell has three values. Band 1 - Year of burn Band 2 - Unique ID for the simulated fire for that simulation year Band 3 - Whether or not the cell was an ignition location for a fire. There will only be 1 ignition cell per fire per year. 0 = not ignition 1 = ignition point For background on ALFRESCO, please refer to: Is Alaska's Boreal Forest Now Crossing a Major Ecological Threshold? Daniel H. Mann, T. Scott Rupp, Mark A. Olson, and Paul A. Duffy Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 2012 44 (3), 319-331 http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.1657/1938-4246-44.3.319

These annual fire history grids (0=no fire, 1=fire) were produced directly from the BLM Alaska Fire Service database and the Canadian National Fire Database. They are simply a 1x1km raster representation of their fire history polygon database that can be obtained from: http://fire.ak.blm.gov/predsvcs/maps.php http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/datamart Note, fire history data is very unreliable before ~1950 in Alaska. Fires may have been recorded in a given year, but that does not mean all fires that occurred were successfully recorded. This data was assembled from every recorded fire that has been entered into Alaska and Canadian databases. This results in several years containing no fires at all.

This file includes spatial representations of relative flammability produced through summarization of the ALFRESCO model outputs. These specific outputs are from the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) project, and are from the linear coupled version using AR4/CMIP3 climate inputs (IEM Generation 1) and AR5/CMIP5 climate inputs (IEM Generation 2). Relative flammability was defined as the likelihood of a pixel to burn . These parameters were assessed throughout the full spatial domain and 3 temporal domains of the simulations (1900-1999, 2000-2099, and 1900-2099) across all 200 model replicates. We calculated the proportion of years among all the simulations (200 replicate runs x number of years per simulation) that each individual pixel burned. The models and scenarios include: IEM Generation 1, AR4/CMIP3: CCCMA-CGCM3.1(T47) MPI-ECHAM5/MPI-OM under the A1B emission scenario IEM Generation 2, AR5/CMIP5: NCAR-CCSM4 MRI-CGCM3 under RCP 8.5 emission scenario There are several example map layouts for specific Landscape Conservation Cooperatives in Alaska for for IEM Generation 1 outputs only. Relative Flammability: Counts the number of times a pixel burned through all replicates and time and divides that value by the total number of layers (replicates * years) ------------- For background on ALFRESCO, please refer to: Daniel H. Mann, T. Scott Rupp, Mark A. Olson, and Paul A. Duffy. Is Alaska's Boreal Forest Now Crossing a Major Ecological Threshold? Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 2012 44 (3), 319-331