This dataset consists of spatial representations of relative vegetation change produced through summarization of ALFRESCO model outputs. These specific outputs are from the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) project, and are from the linear coupled version using AR5/CMIP5 climate inputs (IEM Generation 2).

Rain on snow (ROS) events were derived from 20km dynamically downscaled ERA-Interim reanalysis and global climate model (GCM) climate projections data. The GCM data were from RCP 8.5 of GFDL-CM3 and NCAR-CCSM4. The amount of liquid precipitation for each day is provided in the database for each grid cell and was determined to be a ROS event by the temperature being at or near freezing and/or the presence of snow on the ground.

This set of files includes downscaled historical estimates of monthly total precipitation (in millimeters, no unit conversion necessary, rainwater equivalent) from 1901 - 2013 (CRU TS 3.22) at 10 min x 10 min spatial resolution with global coverage. The downscaling process utilizes CRU CL v. 2.1 climatological datasets from 1961-1990.

These files include climatological summaries of downscaled historical and projected decadal average monthly derived snow variables and summaries at 771 meter spatial resolution across Alaska. There are three types of files: 1). The historical and future snowfall water equivalent (SWE) in millimeters, produced by multiplying snow-day fraction by decadal average monthly precipitation and summing over 6 months from October to March to estimate the total SWE on April 1. 2). The historical and future ratio of SWE to total precipitation (SFEtoP) in percent. SFEtoP is calculated as (SWE / total precipitation) and also represents the six month October to March period. 3). The future difference in SWE with respect to the historical baseline (dSWE) in percent. dSWE is calculated as ((future SWE – historical SWE) / historical SWE) * 100. These data are also summary for the six month October to March period. The historical baseline period is 1970-1999, (file naming convention “H70.99”) and data are calculated from downscaled CRU TS 3.1 data. Projected variables exist for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios and for 5 GCMs: NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R, IPSL-CM5, and MRI-CGCM3. The 5-model mean (file naming convention "5MM") was also computed. Projections exist for three thirty-year climatologies: the 2020s (2010-2039), the 2050s (2040-2069), and the 2080s (2070-2099). The snow-day fraction data used can be found here: http://ckan.snap.uaf.edu/dataset/projected-decadal-averages-of-monthly-snow-day-fraction-771m-cmip5-ar5 http://ckan.snap.uaf.edu/dataset/historical-decadal-averages-of-monthly-snow-day-fraction-771m-cru-ts3-0-3-1 The precipitation data used can be found here: http://ckan.snap.uaf.edu/dataset/projected-monthly-and-derived-precipitation-products-771m-cmip5-ar5 http://ckan.snap.uaf.edu/dataset/historical-monthly-and-derived-precipitation-products-771m-cru-ts Note: In Littell et al. 2018, "SWE" is referred to as "SFE", and "SFEtoP" as "SFE:P"

This dataset includes quantile-mapped historical and projected model runs of AR5 daily mean mean temperature (tas, degrees C) for each day of every year from 1958 - 2100 at 2.5 x 2.5 degree spatial resolution across 3 CMIP5 models. They are 365 multi-band geotiff files, one file per year, each band representing one day of the year, with no leap years.

This dataset consists of single band GeoTIFFs containing total annual counts of wet days for each year from 1980-2100 for one downscaled reanalysis (ERA-Interim, 1980-2015) and two downscaled CMIP5 global climate models driven under the RCP 8.5 baseline emissions scenario (NCAR-CCSM4 and GFDL-CM3, 2006-2100), all derived from the same dynamical downscaling effort using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (Version 3.5). A day is counted as a "wet day" if the total precipitation for that day is 1 mm or greater.

This set of files includes downscaled projections of monthly totals, and derived annual, seasonal, and decadal means of monthly average temperature (in degrees Celsius, no unit conversion necessary) from 1901 - 2006 (CRU TS 3.0) or 2009 (CRU TS 3.1) at 771 x 771 meter spatial resolution.

A landfast ice dataset along the Chukchi Sea continental shelf, spanning 1996-2023. Spatial resolution is 100 m. Each month of the ice season (October through July) is summarized over three 9-year periods (1996-2005, 2005-2014, 2014-2023) using the minimum, maximum, median, and mean distance of SLIE from the coastline. The minimum extent indicates the region that was always occupied by landfast ice during a particular calendar month. The median extent indicates where landfast occurred at least 50% of the time. The maximum extent represents regions that may only have been landfast ice on one occasion during the selected time period. The mean SLIE position for the each month and and time period is also included. The dataset is derived from three sources: seaward landfast ice images derived from synthetic aperture radar images from the RadarSAT and EnviSAT constellations (1996-2008), the Alaska Sea Ice Program (ASIP) ice charts (2008-2017, 2019-2022), and the G10013 SIGID-3 Arctic Ice Charts produced by the National Ice Center (NIC; 2017-2019, 2022-2023). Within each GeoTIFF file there are 8 different pixel values representing different characteristics: 0 - Ocean 1 - Maximum Landfast Ice Extent 2 - Median Landfast Ice Extent 3 - Minimum Landfast Ice Extent 4 - Mean Landfast Ice Edge 5 - Land 6 - Out of Domain 7 - Coast Vector Shadow The file naming convention is as follows: Chukchi_$month_$era_SLIE_MMM_summary.tif For example, the name Chukchi_05_2005-2014_SLIE_MMM_summary.tif indicates the file represents data for May 2005-2014. These data were updated on August 21, 2025 to rectify the omission of some NIC chart data sources for the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons.

This dataset contains climate "indicators" (also referred to as climate indices or metrics) computed over one historical period (1980-2009) using the NCAR Daymet dataset, and two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099) using two statistically downscaled global climate model projections, each run under two plausible greenhouse gas futures (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). The indicators within this dataset include: hd: “Hot day” threshold -- the highest observed daily maximum 2 m air temperature such that there are 5 other observations equal to or greater than this value. cd: “Cold day” threshold -- the lowest observed daily minimum 2 m air temperature such that there are 5 other observations equal to or less than this value. rx1day: Maximum 1-day precipitation su: "Summer Days" –- Annual number of days with maximum 2 m air temperature above 25 C dw: "Deep Winter days" –- Annual number of days with minimum 2 m air temperature below -30 C wsdi: Warm Spell Duration Index -- Annual count of occurrences of at least 5 consecutive days with daily mean 2 m air temperature above 90th percentile of historical values for the date cdsi: Cold Spell Duration Index -- Same as WDSI, but for daily mean 2 m air temperature below 10th percentile rx5day: Maximum 5-day precipitation r10mm: Number of days with precipitation > 10 mm cwd: Consecutive wet days –- number of the most consecutive days with precipitation > 1 mm cdd: Consecutive dry days –- number of the most consecutive days with precipitation < 1 mm

This set of files includes downscaled projections of decadal means of annual day of freeze or thaw (ordinal day of the year), and length of growing season (numbers of days, 0-365) for each decade from 2010 - 2100 at 771x771 meter spatial resolution. Each file represents a decadal mean of an annual mean calculated from mean monthly data. ---- The spatial extent includes Alaska. Each set of files originates from one of five top ranked global circulation models from the CMIP5/AR5 models and RPCs, or is calculated as a 5 Model Average. Day of Freeze, Day of Thaw, Length of Growing Season calculations: Estimated ordinal days of freeze and thaw are calculated by assuming a linear change in temperature between consecutive months. Mean monthly temperatures are used to represent daily temperature on the 15th day of each month. When consecutive monthly midpoints have opposite sign temperatures, the day of transition (freeze or thaw) is the day between them on which temperature crosses zero degrees C. The length of growing season refers to the number of days between the days of thaw and freeze. This amounts to connecting temperature values (y-axis) for each month (x-axis) by line segments and solving for the x-intercepts. Calculating a day of freeze or thaw is simple. However, transitions may occur several times in a year, or not at all. The choice of transition points to use as the thaw and freeze dates which best represent realistic bounds on a growing season is more complex. Rather than iteratively looping over months one at a time, searching from January forward to determine thaw day and from December backward to determine freeze day, stopping as soon as a sign change between two months is identified, the algorithm looks at a snapshot of the signs of all twelve mean monthly temperatures at once, which enables identification of multiple discrete periods of positive and negative temperatures. As a result more realistic days of freeze and thaw and length of growing season can be calculated when there are idiosyncrasies in the data.